News DetailSupercells AGAIN in Alberta!
Posted At: July 17, 2007 @ 4:27 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Low-precipitation (LP) supercells have initiated in the upslope flow along the Foothills of the Rocky Mountains in western Alberta this afternoon. Given the rather weak, meridional upper-level flow, these storms will likely not move much off the mountains until later this evening, when the cap may lead to their demise. Here is the Calgary radar as of 3:30 pm MT.
Consequently, a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for parts of western Alberta along the Foothills and adjacent Plains this afternoon/evening, and a severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for the supercell identified above. Hail to the size of quarters has already been reported with this storm. A tornado watch is also in effect for parts of northeast AB and northwest SK for brief funnels that have been reported under weak thunderstorms/cumulus clouds...these seem to happen often up there!
Consequently, a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for parts of western Alberta along the Foothills and adjacent Plains this afternoon/evening, and a severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for the supercell identified above. Hail to the size of quarters has already been reported with this storm. A tornado watch is also in effect for parts of northeast AB and northwest SK for brief funnels that have been reported under weak thunderstorms/cumulus clouds...these seem to happen often up there!
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reed: are you drooling for thursday yet man? lol
Reed have you looked into getting connecting flights?...as in going from say mich to minnapolis to wpg then to calgary....i work at the wpg airport and sometimes if you do it that way its cheaper....and i know northwest flys from minniapolis to wpg numerous times a day...and tons of flights through west jet from wpg to calgary....just a thought...may take you a bit longer but it may save ur money in the end
I think he said in his earlier post that he wasn't going to Alberta.. He said that he couldn't afford the plane ticket and all.
Well I got to get away from the computer for awhile, got things on my mind.. Hope nothing interesting happens while Im gone!
See Yall!!!
Severe threat where I am vacationing in New York for tomorrow. SPC mentions tornadoes are possible. I'll be busy seeing my family but if anything is pretty close we may chase, but chasing in the Appalachains may pose a challenge lol.
heh well I dunno if hed be able to get here quickly enough thats the thing. If storms are bad enough they will suspend air traffic due to the danger of microbursts.
Is the potential for severe SuperCells to develope in Southwestern Saskatchewan still an imminent threat based on your models later this week?
What do you think about the cell south of edson, looks decent
What do you do at the airport Amanda?
Westjet also does a Winnipeg Calgary flight for under $100 last I checked too.
Chicago to Winnipeg via United
Minneapolis to Winnipeg via Northwest
Denver to Winnipeg via Skywest (united codeshare)
Least those are all the ones I've flown on.
Tim....lol Im one of those wonderful people that goes through your things and takes stuff away...lol...I do security with the xray machines and shit....off work right now actually because of 3 herniated discs in my back...:-(Yup those are the flights Tim...not sure what the prices are going or coming from the states but in know West Jet has decent fares....
$128 USD round trip leaving tomorrow (Winnipeg YWG to Calgary YYC) if you check WestJet's site.
CATSA officers rock. I'd kill for your job haha. I was training to be a commercial pilot myself before they diagnosed me with mature onset jeuvenile diabetes so that's kinda off the charts until they let IDDMs fly so I always loved the airport. (Particularly being as it has the only Swiss Chalet in the city)
Severe thunderstorm warning for:
Minnedosa-Neepawa-Russell-Riding Mountain National Park
RADAR IS SHOWING AN INTENSE THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF RIDING MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK. THIS STORM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 35 KM/H. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM. THIS IS A WARNING THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING IN THESE REGIONS. REMEMBER THAT SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE TORNADOES. LISTEN FOR UPDATED WARNINGS. NOTE..A SUMMARY OF ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR SOUTHERN MANITOBA IS AVAILABLE IN THE WWCN11 CWWG BULLETIN ISSUED IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THIS BULLETIN.
A HOT HUMID AIRMASS HAS CREATED CONDITONS THAT MAY LEAD TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS
I need to move to Portage La Prarie.. they're in the path of everything lately it seems.
Tim god dont do that....lol worst place to move to...lol....grew up in oakville and went to high school there....lol pretty crapy town...lol
Yeah.. I was just kidding haha. I lived in a town in Nova Scotia for most of my childhood that had 1 store (2 if you included the Canex military exchange on the base). If I -ever- thought about moving to find storms it'd be if I had a full time job chasing them and that ain't happening haha. At that point I'd probably move to Oklahoma or Kansas or Texas
lol well portage has more then that ...just a no where town...oakville well its a town of about 500 ppl so i know what u mean...lol
what direction are all the supercells headed Reed? and anyone else that knows let me know.
Wow.. sucks to storm chase in China.. or maybe it doesn't (might be easier on the vehicles).. watched a thing on @Discovery about them firing silver iodide anti-aircraft bursts into thunderclouds capable of hail to compete for hail causing smaller hail stones to form. It's also just cool to have a "Ministry of Weather Modification".. sounds so sci-fi'ish
ive heard from a guy at work that they do that here in alberta as well. central alberta has a super high frequency of hail...
Never heard of that. It'd be cool to watch them do it though.
Guys sorry to butt in on the Canada conversation but I just looked at the RUC and check out the CAPE on this thing over SDakota, MN and Iowa!
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/ruc00hr_sfc_cape.gif
Deep, dark purple is always good, lol.
Many, many car windshield claims will be filed soon.
This is about the point where the hundreds of storm chasers descend upon the small unsuspecting town in South Dakota haha. Wasn't the Oklahoma City 99 F5 only 4500 cape?
Dang, if the LLJ was just a bit stronger this would be an absolutely insane set-up for a large area. Corey I think you hit it right lots of car dealers are going to be crying in their beer tonight.
andrew dont ever be sorry to let us old canucks know about weather down neather lol. i storm chase in winter in canada all the time... every year i check on noaa's sight and chase on radar... not as exciting but eh... beats shovelling snow.
reed; sorry to hear your not coming up man, but ill keep an eye out for you up here im sure with brandon and mike and the rest of us alberta boys. i have this week off and im gased up and ready to roll. you can read the maps better than me..so i apptreciate the updates dayly on here for us up here .
Hey Amanda, I FEEL for ya, been out with my back for almost a year, and I DO work for an airline in the states! My Dr, is deciding on a 5th back surgery though. ugh. I am trying to see if we had any flights, to Calgary, I have lots of buddy passes left, IF Reed can get on the plane standby though thats the problem! Everyone is flying! It would be a whole lot cheaper then what he is looking at!
oh ya ,one more thing to pass on...we havent had a good storm chase season in alberta for at least 3 years now...we are due this year im feeling.
Hi guys,
Just trying to get a handle on the Iowa/Minnesota situation... 6000 Joules is definitely some healthy CAPE, and according to RUC 20 hourly analysis, there's definitely some deep moisture because MLCAPEs are still around 5500 Joules, which means the moisture isn't getting mixed out. (If there is a thin layer of really moist air at the ground, the surface based CAPE could be pretty high, but it won't mean much because the moisture will dissipate into the dryer air as it rises)...
But at the risk of trying to sound like a know-it all, there's a few other factor you need to look at for tornadic potential. Helicity looks best in eastern Iowa, and low-level CAPE (the CAPE in the lowest 3km of the atmosphere) is apparently best in Central Iowa and southern Minnesota. You could also look at how the wind are lined up with the front; if they are at an angle, you will tend to get "discrete" storms (individual storm cells) instead of a squall line. Again, best spot for this seems to be north central Iowa; the rest (including upper air stuff) looks like it's more lined up with the front.
My gut feeling is that this is more of a derecho type setup, with winds roughly unidirectional aligned with the front above 850mb, huge CAPEs, etc. You already have an 80mph gust in Tripp County, SD from that system, so you could be in for a lot more of that through the night if this thing picks up steam.
Anyhow, just my gut feeling, I haven't looked in detail at everything. Best bet for a significant tornado would be in Northern or Eastern Iowa, especially if the outflow boundary from the system in South Dakota gets there in time.
Comments?
Simon E.
just one comment simon...you da man lmao. seriously...the information on this sight from everyone is second to none and im glad ive finally come across it after all these years. it pays to have good instincts..ill take them at face value.
Tim if your interested in working at the airport they are always hiring...pays good too!!
Hey biggyd67, what you think about those cells to the west, think they will make it this far.
i wish i could say yes mike but no i dont think so.. we had a small trough of hgih pressure earlier all day... just started to drop just recently...im think what reed was saying all along..later in the week...tomm maybe ...but im not thinking tonight. then again ..what do i know, im only a drywaller lol.
Hey Simon, thanks for the informative post. I like that stuff, keeps us rookies in the know.
WHY hasn't anything blown up in Iowa yet? Is it the CAP?
I'm just sitting here waiting for an h-bomb to go off and nothing yet...
Hi Andrew,
Actually, was gonna call the whole thing off because of that cap, but there's some stuff going up in the last 15 minutes in NE Iowa, so should keep a close eye on that stuff... SD looks to be crapping out because of the lid, but I bet it left an outflow boundary...
The cap is actually a major factor for non-events this time of year. You might remember the big bust in your state last year. Think it was a high risk day; big CAPE, big shear, big everything, but the cap held strong, and all that was left at the end of the day was a large crowd of disappointed chaser.
Lets keep a close eye on this, it could happen yet...
Simon E.
Okay, just did a little exercise timing the outflow boundary; doesn't look like it'll reach central Iowa until about 3 or 4 a.m., and that looks like the only well defined lifting mechanism there. Warm front still pretty well defined NW Iowa, but that cap's still holding strong... I spoke too soon when I said derecho, this is starting to look like a non-event!
Simon E.
I hate the days where the only thing you catch is a sunburn :P
Yall may want to take another look at South Dakota. Discrete cell went up fast, 60000 Foot top, and about 1.50 hail. Heading right for Sioux Falls.
Well I am going to bed safe in the knowledge that I SUCK as a weather forecaster. If I was chasing for real right now instead of virtual chasing I'd be starting the 5 hour drive back home from Waterloo and I would be in one pissy mood.
Oh well I'll bet I'm not the only one who's been busted by the cap before.
there is now a sevre thudnerstorm warning for red deer-ponoka-innisfai-stettler alberta.. but on www.theweathernetwork.com all i see is cloudy periods tonight for my town of ponoka, alberta.. i wonder if they just issue a sever thunderstorm warning and watch and whatnot.. cuz they cant issure one for a sepcific area like red deer which is about 30 mins. away from here.. cuz ponoka doesnt look like its gonna get anything tonight at all.. then i went onto www.weatheroffice.gc.ca and it showed that there was still a sever t-storm warning for ponoka-red deer-innisfail-stettler.. but then i clicked on the ponoka-red deer-innisfail-stettler region and it just said sever thunderstorm warning issued at 9:34 p.m. mountain time for Red Deer county near Sylvan Lake.. so once again im wondering if they just put a warning up for the ponoka-red deer-innisfail-stettler as a general area of watch or warning.. cuz ya ponoka doesnt seem like its gettin or gonna get anything tonight.. give me an answer back reed.. lol i consider the question to be whether or not ponoka is in the warning area.. or the weather services just issued a warning for the general area but specifically pointed the place out that was going to be affected. anyways let me know what you think Reed!!!!
amen andrew...we've all been skunked...alot.
i might have an answer for ya brb... ec and the weather network are in the east and well...somtimes they are a bit slow when posting... there is alot of unstable air from calgary to edmonton...its a hit and miss situation...from looking at the sat charts and radar id think they would be under the warning. also its for the whole countyso if it hits the northern west most corner..they have to issue it for the whole county. thats my best guess. hope it helps
thanks biggyd that helped.. lol no offense though.. still need a lil help from Reed.. the pro here.. do u storm chace at all??
over 15 years but i understand lol np. and yw
i live in red deer county between red deer and sylvan lake BRB...looking west now at 10:28 MT there is a TON of lightning and i can hear the odd rumble of thunder. i wouldnt be surprised if this scrapes ponoka soon. what a lightshow!
hey brandon well ya i jjust have started seeing lighting here.. but the radar that im seeing is all showing that the storms moving northeast slowly.. and the storms started from rockey mountain house and in and around there.. so im still thinking.. and if im wrong correct me.. but it looks like its headed right toward ponoka.. guve me an answer back and i will see what u think brandon.
plz brandon lol give me an answer back.. unless ur gone then u cant but if ur there plz give me an answer soon
that thing near red deer is nasty... getting a bit bigger too...looks like its gonna swell then dump agin and go all night long.
he biggyd it looks like here in ponoka it getting intense.. i donno brandon said it would scrape ponoka but just to the west.. like maybe 2 mins. from here.. one lightning went on for about 30 seconds.. being a storm chaser.. do u know if ponoka, alberta is going to get hit hardly or lightly?? answer me back quickly
dude...im north of edmonton wishing that thing would come get me lol. its definatly gonna hit you... but the rain is getting less dence as it gets to ponoka... starting to rain heavily to the left of stettler though.
so what are you saying.. will the storm be intense.. like tornado intense.. or just thunder and lightning intense.. answer me back really quickly.. i have to go to bed for work soon!!
stating to see the lightning in the distance here and im 150 kms from the center of it
thunder and lightning intence... tornados rarly happen at night in canada and almost never in alberta... besides...no aboundace of rotation in it...but ya...lots of boom boom.
but from radar do u see any tornaic supercells about to hit ponoka.. or just thunderstorm cells.. answer me quick again!!
also they say that they can spin off funnel clouds in the warnings just to be safe. this is a big one and its currently growing high in the atmosphere... but no heavy rotaion as yet identified
you need to relax...its gonna be a show...there will be alot of wind and rain but i dont see anything on the radar.
there is no greater way to see if there is one coming than with your eyes and ears brb.. just relax and be vigalent. dont freak out to much
this thing is gonna go all night.. its sucking more humidity up right now. brb...are you ok now?
nice lightshow developing in north Edmonton just started to pop up on the doppler 10 minutes ago getting more intense.
this storm started this morning over rocky mountain house and wouldnt move all day. its strong enuff now.
is it over you right now kain? im in fort sask.
I see storms finally fired in northeast IA..they look elevated now.
Any reports coming out of Alberta from today?? I've been away from the computer for awhile.
a new line is developing near white court.
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=WHK
reed: this thing was the same one that grew over rocky mountain house today... wouldnt move untill just a couple of hours ago...been watching it all day.
serious lightning over leduc right now....
finalyits coming our way.
reed: nothing all day pretty much what you see here
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/satellite/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=satellite&imagename=goes_wcan_1070_m_..................jpg&nbimages=1&clf=1
biggyd67, it is coming your way, some rain came with it but that was it. nice light show though, still over head and can see more coming in the distance......it shouldn't turn into any funnel clouds though right??
Just intense lighting and hailing reported by red deer. NEw cell developing right on top of me. I'm keeping an eye on it. Just a severe thunderstorm watch for Edmonton atm. I'll keep you posted if anything happens Reed.
Lacombe county near Lacombe, Blackfalds and Gull Lake
12:06 AM MDT Wednesday 18 July 2007
Severe thunderstorm warning for
Lacombe county near Lacombe, Blackfalds and Gull Lake continued
At 12:00 PM MDT radar indicates a line of strong thunderstorms extending from Ponoka to Olds. The line is moving very slowly east-northeast. The primary threat with these storm is heavy rain and strong winds. These storms may also produce large hail and funnel clouds.
In a hot humid airmass thunderstorms have developed off the foothills. Thunderstorms will be slow moving. Some of these thunderstorms may become severe giving locally heavy rain and strong winds.
Red Deer county near Spruce View and Red Lodge Prov Park
12:06 AM MDT Wednesday 18 July 2007
THanks for the updates!
I can't handle being away from the computer during potential severe weather. Thursday is going to be a big day. Damn I wish I could be up there.
What do you guys see as progressing on thursday? and where in alberta?
reed if i had a laptop.. id be with ya all day... im going out early in the morning on thursday would appreciate your input on it .
reed called it about 1 and a half weeks ago.... potential for big bad thunderstorms later this week in southern/ central alberta.
be back in a bit...gonna go for a drive...watch the show
Damn right now i wish it would storm here...freaking hot and humid...at least a good rain would cool things down a bit...anything for manitoba for the next few days?
know the feeling still really muggy here too.
Amanda.....I find this warmer weather nice in Winnipeg. Now only if it were above 30 degrees with a severe weather threat.........lol
Jon
if anyone is interested...some of the best pics of the july 31st edmonton tornado 20 years ago.
http://datalib.library.ualberta.ca/tornado/
Thanks for the Pics Biggyd, so edmonton did get hit last night, sorta weak though, just light rain and some lighting nothing special in south edmonton
Here is an old CBC report for the tornado...pretty interesting.
http://archives.cbc.ca/IDC-1-70-1713-11760/disasters_tragedies/tornadoes/clip8
ya lol i was ok last night biggyd.. i think u got the impression that i was scared :|.. lol i wasnt, but wow when that storm was directly over my homewotwn of ponoka.. wow the lightning was B-E-A-utiful.. and it was intense too.. im talking like every 30 seconds one lightnin strike would come after another... no hail or anything like that but the thunder and lightning made up for those things.
Well you Canucks keep us informed over the next couple days- sounds like you're going to get all the fun. After tomorrow looks like major heat and death to severe weather my area for awhile, so it might be a while before I get another fix.
Severe Weather Alert
Tornado Warning NY: Long Island
TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 919 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWEST SUFFOLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
* UNTIL 945 AM EDT...
* AT 916 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR SAYVILLE... OR ABOUT NEAR ISLIP...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... SAYVILLE AND RONKONKOMA BY 940 AM... HOLBROOK BY 945 AM...
WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES... EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
LAT...LON 4076 7323 4070 7319 4075 7305 4082 7308
Sorry I meant to cut off the extra stuff there.
Well dang, just looked at SPC and there's RED on the map for Iowa. Simon, looks like the derecho might happen tonight for real. Not a big tornado threat but looks like the cap might not win today.
Cool.
Andrew is right, The spc has issued a MODERATE risk for severe storms today for much of Iowa and parts of Illinois!! Looks like things are gonna get pretty interesting....
Here is more details............
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 181237
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2007
VALID 181300Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SD...NORTHEAST NEB...MUCH OF IA...AND
NORTHERN IL...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS AND OH VALLEYS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WA/ID/MT...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING
THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES ACROSS WY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK
EASTWARD TODAY AND BECOME EMBEDDED IN FASTER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO TRACK DOWN SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN SD INTO IL...AND RESULT IN A
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...ERN SD INTO IL/IND...
12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WITH
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN IA AND INTO IL. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY AS UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...STEEP LOW
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70F WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF EXTREME INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SERN SD/NERN NEB ACROSS MUCH OF IA INTO NRN IL. WEAK
CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS AXIS UNTIL AT
LEAST MID AFTERNOON...WHEN INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN SD/NEB. ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND ORGANIZE INTO A FAST-MOVING MCS ACROSS IA AND INTO IL.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A DERECHO EVENT ALONG THIS AXIS WITH WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS. EASTWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT DEPENDS ON
ORGANIZATION OF MCS...BUT MAY BE AS FAR EAST AS PARTS OF OH BEFORE
19/12Z.
...WY/WRN SD/WRN NEB...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND EASTERLY COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
RESULT IN A FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE FOR SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE BIGHORN MTNS AND BLACK HILLS
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. UPPER TROUGH NOW
MOVING ACROSS WY MAY HELP TO INITIATE SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA
RELATIVELY EARLY /18-21Z/ WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.
...WA/ID/MT...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ROTATING NORTHWARD ACROSS CA AND INTO ORE/WA. A DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF NV AND SOUTHERN ID
TODAY. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN ID AND EASTERN WA. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES TO SUPPORT A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF NY/PA
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS FEATURE WILL AFFECT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR FROM NJ
SOUTHWARD...WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND MLCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 1000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY MID
AFTERNOON...SPREADING OFFSHORE AFTER DARK. SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE FORCING SUGGEST A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
Hey Reed i am currently in Peoria IL, Mostlikely gonna head NW on I74 to I80 and then near the IA border, maybe into IA, whats your thoughts? I dont wanna go to far into IA.
Does anyone have a idea where i might want to set up? Im open to all opinions.
Ben, Im no pro at this stuff but it occurs to me that the best chance for any severe weather looks to be in NW Iowa. This is just my oppinion, I will do some more researching and if I find anything that catches my eye I'll let you know.
Reed, looks like the tornado threat is low today, but if something fires up and you're up for checking it out get in touch. I left my phone at a friend's house last night, so hit me up on here or FB.
I am soooooooooo bored of the weather in my area!!!!!! The NWS calls for H-O-T and dry weather through Thursday.
Anything interesting happening in canada lately???
Hey Corey..I'll let you know if we need to fly southwest! It looks like a raging derecho event is forecast today.
There will definitely be supercells again today in Alberta...and tomorrow is going to have the greatest threat for tornadoes...somewhere between Calgary and Edmonton. I'll be posting continuously about the severe chances up there today and tomorrow.
I'll have blog posts for both the US and the Canada chances!!!
Corey...you don't happen to know who "J" is on the woodtv blog do you?
So dang humid here today, 83% humidity, if i have to live in this there better be some nice storms, nothing happening in Alberta right now Zack, had some storms early this morning but other then that nothing of yet
Hey Zack..it's that time of year in Oklahoma!
We were lucky to have that upper-low spinning around for most of June.
I'm not a big fan of OK weather this time of year... 105 with a 75 dewpoint.
Tell me about it, the humidity makes it feel 10 times hotter than it really is. As far as im concerned the only chance for me seeing storms in my area looks to be Friday.
But nothing widespread or organized is expected at this time.
*grins wickedly* good to hear reed i'll be sure to get my camera ready. I'm gunna contact my sister and see the possability of doing my own chase today and tomorrow.
It definently looks like a derecho event is in store for Iowa!!
Wish I lived up there, Windstorms are definently my type!!!!!!!!
he Reed.. how big is the tornado threat in the red deer-ponoka-innisfail-stettler region?? if there is a big chance how big will the tornadoes be?? i love wehn Alberta gets attention like this lol.. they usually never do.. anyways give me a shout back and see what you think!
Where is this storm gonna hit the worst? Tonight and tomorrow? (Edmonton area)