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Posted At: October 6, 2008 @ 10:15 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A classic high-shear/low-CAPE setup will materialize this afternoon from southeast KS, southward through central OK, into northern Texas, as a near vertically stacked storm system ejects from the Southern Rockies.  CAPE values will range from around 500 J/kg in Kansas, to as high as 1500 J/kg in Northwest Texas, but the best low-level shear will coexist with the low-CAPE areas.  The RUC forecast CAPE (left) and 850 mb flow (right) are displayed below.  As can be seen in the 850 mb map, I am a little worried that the best low-level jet will weaken slightly or move east of Oklahoma as storms develop later this afternoon along the I-35 corridor, but ~30 knots at 850 mb is still sufficient for tornadoes.

Posted At: October 5, 2008 @ 9:29 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A large precipitation shield has developed over the Southern High Plains overnight and has slowly moved east across the Texas Panhandle this morning.  Given very marginal moisture over this area, this precipitation will not intensify through morning, and should slowly dissipate by afternoon after limiting daytime heating.  The most untainted airmass will be near the southern end of the precipitation shield over extreme Southwest Texas and Southeast New Mexico, where dewpoints could approach 60F by peak heating.  Below are the morning RUC forecasts for CAPE and 850 mb flow for 00z this evening:

The RUC is forecasting CAPE values exceeding 1500 J/kg in the southwest Texas Panhandle by 00z, which is believable given that 60F dewpoints have already advected to the High Plains.  The only limiting factor will be cloud cover and precipitation limiting heating - we'll have to see how this plays out through afternoon for any good tornado threat.  I have a feeling the "energy" may eject too early before ample destabilization can take place, which will result in disorganized bands of convection flying out of New Mexico with only a straight-line wind threat.   The SPC has a 5% area for tornadoes across Southwest Texas and Southeast New Mexico, but also mention destabilization concerns.  Since I have to have my dissertation done by Oct 15, I'll likely be sitting this one out and wait for the next system, which hopefully will have more moisture to work with.  Check back for updates!

Posted At: October 3, 2008 @ 10:30 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

But based on the morning WRF/GFS runs, moisture is going to be a serious problem and will likely result in waisted dynamics, as a massive storm system is forecast to amplify over the Western U.S. this weekend.  This storm system will induce a strong diurnal low-level jet by Sunday across much of the Plains, but it looks like the best upper-level flow will exist over the Southern Plains across western KS/OK and the TX Panhandle (see below).  However, as strong as this LLJ is, it will not be able to transport deep tropical moisture into the Plains, given that the Gulf has been cleaned out by the last few cold fronts. 

While most of the deep moisture remains over the Gulf of Mexico, the morning WRF and GFS are showing pockets of 55-60F dewpoints across parts of the High Plains -- especially over the eastern Texas Panhandle.  While I am skeptical that dewpoints will reach these values, if they can, there will be an isolated tornado threat, especially toward evening.  Even with this moisture, CAPE values are forecast to be less than 1000 J/kg, but CIN is also non-existent by 00z Monday.  It will be interesting to see how the moisture scenario evolves in the models over the next few days!  Check back for updates, we'll definitely be chasing this event if there is a non-zero tornado chance...

Posted At: October 1, 2008 @ 8:00 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

I was going through some pictures from our Canada chase in July, and came across this!  I think we'll make this part of our 2009 storm chasing uniform:

Posted At: September 28, 2008 @ 9:21 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Check out these incredible photos and video taken by typhoon chaser James Reynolds (TyphoonFury.com) from the east coast of Taiwan as Typhoon Jangmi was lurking just off-shore.  This appears to be a similar phenomenon as what we experienced along the seawall in Galveston, although much more intense here and the water is much cleaner!  Check out TyphoonFury.com for James' complete chase account along with incredible radar and satellite images.
 

Posted At: September 27, 2008 @ 9:58 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Super-Typhoon Jangmi is currently a monster, with a textbook 18 nm perfectly clear eye, and maximum sustained winds of 135 knots with gusts up to 165 knots!!!  The center of this intense typhoon is 275 nm southeast of Taipei, Taiwan, and is heading west-northwesterly at 13 knots.  Jangmi is expected to weaken slightly before landfall due to relatively cool sea surface temperatures immediately east of the island, but is still expected to pack maximum sustained winds of at least 120 knots at landfall.  I heard from James Reynolds yesterday, and he said he's currently heading south from Hong Kong to Taiwan for intercept.  He's likely positioning on the island today somewhere south of Taipei on the east coast of the island.  I'll let you know if I hear any updates..


The official track of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center shows Super-typhoon Jangmi making landfall just north of the east-central coast of Taiwan in the midst of a recurve to the northeast.  Given a slight acceleration of the forward speed, the typhoon will likely make landfall just before 12z on the 29th.  I'm sure James will have video from inside the stadium-effect eye by then!

Posted At: September 26, 2008 @ 1:48 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Tropical Storm Kyle is slowly intensifying to the south of Bermuda, with maximum sustained winds estimated at 60 mph with a central minimum pressure of 1000 mb as of the 2:00 pm advisory.   While Kyle is expected to miss Bermuda to the west, tropical storm warnings are in effect for the island through Thursday given the large eastward extent of the wind field from the center.  Kyle is expected to obtain hurricane strength over the next 24 hours with a peak forecast maximum surface wind of 70 knots before making landfall Sunday night in the Canadian Maritimes.


Kyle is forecast to pass just west of Nova Scotia Sunday night, so the worst conditions will be experienced here as the storm will be racing north.  Given this fast northward storm motion, the winds on the eastern side of the storm will be substantially stronger than the west.  These recurving tropical cyclones also start to take on extra tropical characteristics as a upper-trough approaches from the west and the convection is sheared to the northeast, increasing further the discrepancy between the west and east sides of the storm.  Based on this, hurricane conditions will likely be experienced across much of western Nova Scotia on Sunday night into Monday, not to mention the massive waves on the south facing coast.  If I wasn't trying to graduate stat, I'd be on my way to Nova Scotia right now!

Posted At: September 24, 2008 @ 11:15 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

On September 20 and 21, conditions were perfect across Eastern Australia for supercells, with 2000+ J/kg CAPE values, -8 to -9 LIs, and sufficient wind shear.  Australian storm chaser Cameron Hines documented supercells on both days, including one of the largest mesocyclones he's ever seen in 8 years of Australia storm chasing.  A sea breeze front propagated westward on this day and met the supercell with enhanced wind shear -- the easterly surface flow resulted in nearly 180 degrees of turning with height!  Here is video from September 20 shot by Cameron Hines:

On the following day, a monster HP storm formed near the town of Rathdowney in far Southeast Queensland.  Cameron also intercepted this storm, which produced straightline winds of 100 km/hr and golf ball size hail!  Given that early spring is the season down there, the storm season is just now taking off!

Posted At: September 22, 2008 @ 9:06 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A large trough with several smaller embedded shortwaves will amplify across the Western U.S. through this afternoon, inducing a strong diurnal low level jet from the Southern Plains to the Canadian Border.  Marginal moisture will result in a very strong cap across most of the warm sector through evening, with the exception of western North and South Dakota, which will be slightly west of the good low-level shear.  This can be seen in the RUC forecast 850 mb flow and CAPE for 00z this evening, with the low-CIN instability located primarily west of the low-level jet axis.  This happens often in the model forecasts for Northern Plains and Canada setups, and the shear occasionally does verify further west -- which would result in a more robust tornado threat today.  The WRF is showing much lower CIN across the western edge of the low-level jet axis, especially across ND.  


The Storm Prediction Center has issued a 5% area for tornadoes across south-central ND and north-central SD, which is along the western edge of the favorable low-level shear, so they likely believe the WRF thermodynamics over the RUC.  The surface map this morning is already showing low 60s dewpoints as far north as the Dakotas, thus the weaker CIN forecast by the WRF is very believable.  It will be interesting to see which solution verifies!  Check back as this several weather event unfolds this afternoon/evening.    

Posted At: September 17, 2008 @ 11:02 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Check out this video of Typhoon Sinlaku in Northeastern Taiwan shot by typhoon chaser James Reynolds.  James experienced hours of 130+ mph winds in the northern eyewall of this powerful typhoon.